Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16213

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.41, p 0.278). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16212, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16213
    31 Oct 2026, 12:11 UTC

    BRWD1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionBRWD1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered1735895f9fd060bb

    discovery+0.41 p=0.278 n=9

    replication+0.21 p=0.588 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.41, p 0.278)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    730be0c0fc92255877289ef5…
    follows ca2f2c7789cf…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16213: BRWD1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.38 (p 0.118, n 18), 95% CI -0.10 to +0.72. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.37 (p 0.135, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.48 (p 0.044, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.30 to +0.53, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.38 (p 0.118, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for BRWD1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.