Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16211

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.03, p 0.946). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16210, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16211
    31 Oct 2026, 12:08 UTC

    MEST

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionMEST in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered3b8f23f60eb04b8e

    discovery+0.03 p=0.946 n=9

    replication+0.37 p=0.334 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.03, p 0.946)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    49a473b43cd4ef216b109e0c…
    follows a1c4df885d17…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16211: MEST in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.20 (p 0.424, n 18), 95% CI -0.29 to +0.61. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.20 (p 0.424, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.19 (p 0.450, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.12 to +0.27, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.20 (p 0.424, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MEST in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.