Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16203

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.05, p 0.892). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16202, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16203
    31 Oct 2026, 11:57 UTC

    BTBD10

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionBTBD10 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered8c6feae98a359b53

    discovery+0.05 p=0.892 n=9

    replication+0.84 p=0.0049 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.05, p 0.892)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    23c5d195c531556101565153…
    follows 401e6e86d6f4…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16203: BTBD10 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.52 (p 0.027, n 18), 95% CI +0.07 to +0.79. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.60 (p 0.0080, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.75 (p 3.5e-4, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.46 to +0.72, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.52 (p 0.027, n 18). robust.
cell type
strongest in microglia: +0.62 (p 0.0062, n 18) vs +0.52 in dopamine neurons. proposing microglia.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for BTBD10 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up BTBD10 · microglia · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) +0.15 p 0.594 (needs p < 1.4e-4)