Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16197

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.55, p 0.128). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16196, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16197
    31 Oct 2026, 11:49 UTC

    DACH2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionDACH2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered0bb0e72788162e33

    discovery+0.55 p=0.128 n=9

    replication-0.07 p=0.855 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.55, p 0.128)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    583d33de343b10edbfec5f2a…
    follows b0475d5dded6…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 16197: DACH2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.26 (p 0.298, n 18), 95% CI -0.24 to +0.65. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.52 (p 0.026, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.55 (p 0.017, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.15 to +0.44, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.26 (p 0.298, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for DACH2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.