Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16195

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.50, p 0.175). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16194, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16195
    31 Oct 2026, 11:46 UTC

    AKAP12

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionAKAP12 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredb599bb756fc7409e

    discovery+0.50 p=0.175 n=9

    replication+0.34 p=0.373 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.50, p 0.175)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    e0c21958f589356a23864a56…
    follows 7543e32ccda4…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16195: AKAP12 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.28 (p 0.269, n 18), 95% CI -0.22 to +0.66. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.29 (p 0.243, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.32 (p 0.198, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.21 to +0.40, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.28 (p 0.269, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for AKAP12 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.