Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16174

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.17, p 0.665). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16173, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16174
    31 Oct 2026, 11:19 UTC

    PAIP2B

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPAIP2B in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered285ef2dd049d10fd

    discovery+0.17 p=0.665 n=9

    replication+0.57 p=0.111 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.17, p 0.665)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    7888f926f9d1fd803da29c7c…
    follows ff9019067839…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16174: PAIP2B in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.16 (p 0.526, n 18), 95% CI -0.33 to +0.58. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.19 (p 0.444, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.19 (p 0.460, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.07 to +0.29, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.16 (p 0.526, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PAIP2B in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.