Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16170

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.19, p 0.623). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16169, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16170
    31 Oct 2026, 11:13 UTC

    FAM169A

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionFAM169A in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredab22347d970c02f9

    discovery-0.19 p=0.623 n=9

    replication+0.36 p=0.347 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.19, p 0.623)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    713e4926d955cf153d640643…
    follows a0d1816972cf…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16170: FAM169A in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.16 (p 0.515, n 18), 95% CI -0.33 to +0.59. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.16 (p 0.532, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.20 (p 0.418, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.04 to +0.29, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.16 (p 0.515, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in OPCs: -0.62 (p 0.0064, n 18) vs +0.16 in dopamine neurons. proposing OPCs.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for FAM169A in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up FAM169A · OPCs · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) +0.35 p 0.214 (needs p < 1.4e-4)