Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16162

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.20, p 0.597). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16161, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16162
    31 Oct 2026, 11:05 UTC

    PSMD13

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPSMD13 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredc1a2184fd3d035cc

    discovery+0.20 p=0.597 n=9

    replication+0.78 p=0.014 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.20, p 0.597)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    c555f8ae525c3059b1183324…
    follows e63129defb60…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16162: PSMD13 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.36 (p 0.148, n 18), 95% CI -0.13 to +0.71. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.40 (p 0.103, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.42 (p 0.082, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.27 to +0.54, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.36 (p 0.148, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PSMD13 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.