Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16156

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.03, p 0.946). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16155, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16156
    31 Oct 2026, 10:57 UTC

    MAML2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionMAML2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredc375bd33b90fe4d1

    discovery-0.03 p=0.946 n=9

    replication-0.09 p=0.825 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.03, p 0.946)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    e750b3a33c1f267912254616…
    follows 8d1853066fa2…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16156: MAML2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.15 (p 0.561, n 18), 95% CI -0.57 to +0.34. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.17 (p 0.504, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.17 (p 0.504, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.29 to -0.05, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.15 (p 0.561, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MAML2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.