Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16151

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.09, p 0.820). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16150, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16151
    31 Oct 2026, 10:49 UTC

    CAND1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCAND1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered0971752d3d389fe1

    discovery+0.09 p=0.820 n=9

    replication-0.06 p=0.874 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.09, p 0.820)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    76b10052143b9ca49e55aca9…
    follows 16bc382aaa1b…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16151: CAND1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.00 (p 0.990, n 18), 95% CI -0.47 to +0.46. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.01 (p 0.983, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.01 (p 0.956, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.14 to +0.10, sign flips 6; without severely affected donors -0.00 (p 0.990, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in oligodendrocytes: +0.64 (p 0.0044, n 18) vs -0.00 in dopamine neurons. proposing oligodendrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CAND1 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up CAND1 · oligodendrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) +0.23 p 0.424 (needs p < 1.4e-4)