Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16147

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.50, p 0.174). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16146, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16147
    31 Oct 2026, 10:43 UTC

    DUSP12

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionDUSP12 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredf9157e88145a2b01

    discovery+0.50 p=0.174 n=9

    replication+0.54 p=0.130 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.50, p 0.174)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    091d7b62f2e3e651ba3af572…
    follows 92f8fa88256d…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16147: DUSP12 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.51 (p 0.031, n 18), 95% CI +0.05 to +0.79. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.47 (p 0.051, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.46 (p 0.052, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.44 to +0.65, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.51 (p 0.031, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for DUSP12 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.