Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16135

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.14, p 0.718). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16134, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16135
    31 Oct 2026, 10:27 UTC

    MAP3K4

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionMAP3K4 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered7d73fabcec439234

    discovery+0.14 p=0.718 n=9

    replication-0.05 p=0.893 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.14, p 0.718)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    c05b78c0384ab2a50d14b4d7…
    follows 2ae4d455e1e0…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16135: MAP3K4 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.06 (p 0.814, n 18), 95% CI -0.42 to +0.51. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.06 (p 0.814, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.09 (p 0.709, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.05 to +0.20, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors +0.06 (p 0.814, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MAP3K4 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.