Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16131

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.16, p 0.685). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16130, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16131
    31 Oct 2026, 10:21 UTC

    KPNA2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionKPNA2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered28913f8f92244b47

    discovery-0.16 p=0.685 n=9

    replication-0.14 p=0.718 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.16, p 0.685)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    8bba66ada1cf233ddf309569…
    follows 77c075b4c4a8…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16131: KPNA2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.21 (p 0.413, n 18), 95% CI -0.61 to +0.29. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.31 (p 0.218, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.28 (p 0.269, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.35 to -0.11, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.21 (p 0.413, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for KPNA2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.