Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16112

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.06, p 0.879). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16111, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16112
    31 Oct 2026, 09:56 UTC

    CAMTA1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCAMTA1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredad1a87e7b426bd72

    discovery+0.06 p=0.879 n=9

    replication-0.43 p=0.243 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.06, p 0.879)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    3a86e45a6a9c09a62ae16903…
    follows db7822a9dc8d…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16112: CAMTA1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.21 (p 0.413, n 18), 95% CI -0.61 to +0.29. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.16 (p 0.526, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.44 (p 0.069, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.35 to -0.11, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.21 (p 0.413, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in microglia: -0.62 (p 0.0062, n 18) vs -0.21 in dopamine neurons. proposing microglia.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CAMTA1 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up CAMTA1 · microglia · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.32 p 0.248 (needs p < 1.4e-4)