Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16108

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.21, p 0.581). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16107, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16108
    31 Oct 2026, 09:51 UTC

    TAOK3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTAOK3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered7410decc09f34b00

    discovery-0.21 p=0.581 n=9

    replication+0.12 p=0.760 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.21, p 0.581)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    9ba857c1f86c7e23a95ee95e…
    follows f89108e8bdbd…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16108: TAOK3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.01 (p 0.959, n 18), 95% CI -0.46 to +0.48. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.15 (p 0.541, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.20 (p 0.434, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.11 to +0.14, sign flips 7; without severely affected donors +0.01 (p 0.959, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TAOK3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.