Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16101

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.64, p 0.064). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16100, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16101
    31 Oct 2026, 09:43 UTC

    AGXT

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionAGXT in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereda8c8769270b498db

    discovery-0.64 p=0.064 n=9

    replication-0.13 p=0.738 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.64, p 0.064)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    07584f1baf35e976b225fe6c…
    follows eff4c71d0e37…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16101: AGXT in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.27 (p 0.277, n 18), 95% CI -0.65 to +0.22. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.28 (p 0.254, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.40 (p 0.097, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.40 to -0.18, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.27 (p 0.277, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for AGXT in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.