Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16098

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.39, p 0.297). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16097, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16098
    31 Oct 2026, 09:40 UTC

    S1PR5

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionS1PR5 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredf1d109781c08c296

    discovery-0.39 p=0.297 n=9

    replication-0.23 p=0.560 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.39, p 0.297)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    65f064f62728275cbf052d87…
    follows e4103b69b840…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16098: S1PR5 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.20 (p 0.434, n 18), 95% CI -0.61 to +0.30. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.25 (p 0.323, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.32 (p 0.191, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.31 to -0.10, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.20 (p 0.434, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for S1PR5 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.