Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16096

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.16, p 0.673). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16095, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16096
    31 Oct 2026, 09:37 UTC

    LIMK2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionLIMK2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredd1d63fba8f59c05f

    discovery+0.16 p=0.673 n=9

    replication+0.25 p=0.521 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.16, p 0.673)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    f7ba3e04120d3e376e17bc46…
    follows d38fb9c8f812…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16096: LIMK2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.01 (p 0.976, n 18), 95% CI -0.47 to +0.46. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.06 (p 0.807, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.02 (p 0.935, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.12 to +0.10, sign flips 7; without severely affected donors -0.01 (p 0.976, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for LIMK2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.