Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16089

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.06, p 0.873). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16088, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16089
    31 Oct 2026, 09:26 UTC

    UBE2O

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionUBE2O in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereda66d571182d0eb78

    discovery+0.06 p=0.873 n=9

    replication+0.04 p=0.928 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.06, p 0.873)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    fb37e91ef1fd20ebc6acce0e…
    follows 29f158a101fa…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16089: UBE2O in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.01 (p 0.969, n 18), 95% CI -0.46 to +0.47. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.04 (p 0.881, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.01 (p 0.962, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.11 to +0.11, sign flips 11; without severely affected donors +0.01 (p 0.969, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in oligodendrocytes: -0.61 (p 0.0072, n 18) vs +0.01 in dopamine neurons. proposing oligodendrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for UBE2O in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up UBE2O · oligodendrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.40 p 0.155 (needs p < 1.4e-4)