Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16086

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.08, p 0.838). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16085, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16086
    31 Oct 2026, 09:23 UTC

    IFNAR2

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionIFNAR2 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered2cec63a20d323ca4

    discovery+0.08 p=0.838 n=9

    replication+0.64 p=0.063 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.08, p 0.838)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    16051ca8d02a7dcc44fe5c61…
    follows b9a28aabf4c0…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16086: IFNAR2 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.21 (p 0.403, n 18), 95% CI -0.28 to +0.62. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.19 (p 0.455, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.08 (p 0.767, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.12 to +0.36, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.21 (p 0.403, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for IFNAR2 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.