Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16079

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.35, p 0.361). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16078, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16079
    31 Oct 2026, 09:12 UTC

    MAPKAPK5

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionMAPKAPK5 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredbe55e09ada710afb

    discovery+0.35 p=0.361 n=9

    replication-0.57 p=0.109 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.35, p 0.361)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    009df7587507dbd245f7443c…
    follows 22159444d818…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16079: MAPKAPK5 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.01 (p 0.956, n 18), 95% CI -0.48 to +0.46. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.08 (p 0.761, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.17 (p 0.504, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.17 to +0.12, sign flips 6; without severely affected donors -0.01 (p 0.956, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in astrocytes: -0.60 (p 0.0089, n 18) vs -0.01 in dopamine neurons. proposing astrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MAPKAPK5 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up MAPKAPK5 · astrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) +0.02 p 0.929 (needs p < 1.4e-4)