Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16077

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.37, p 0.329). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16076, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16077
    31 Oct 2026, 09:10 UTC

    UBE3D

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionUBE3D in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered78f7d342e36f40eb

    discovery+0.37 p=0.329 n=9

    replication-0.05 p=0.893 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.37, p 0.329)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    9dfa94eb28af0e1cd366b7ab…
    follows 0c13e6bee200…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16077: UBE3D in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.31 (p 0.204, n 18), 95% CI -0.18 to +0.68. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.39 (p 0.105, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.36 (p 0.137, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.24 to +0.45, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.31 (p 0.204, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in microglia: +0.61 (p 0.0077, n 18) vs +0.31 in dopamine neurons. proposing microglia.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for UBE3D in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up UBE3D · microglia · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) +0.02 p 0.929 (needs p < 1.4e-4)