Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16072

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.30, p 0.436). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16071, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16072
    31 Oct 2026, 09:01 UTC

    TGM3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTGM3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered396e4c0e3813f864

    discovery-0.30 p=0.436 n=9

    replication+0.19 p=0.618 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.30, p 0.436)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    c65cc157a81ef9b7d0647159…
    follows e9e72a2a4b91…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16072: TGM3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.17 (p 0.509, n 18), 95% CI -0.59 to +0.33. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.19 (p 0.444, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.26 (p 0.306, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.30 to -0.06, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.17 (p 0.509, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TGM3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.