Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16064

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.23, p 0.549). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16063, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16064
    31 Oct 2026, 08:50 UTC

    ATP5ME

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionATP5ME in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered247d947dea40d05a

    discovery-0.23 p=0.549 n=9

    replication+0.52 p=0.149 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.23, p 0.549)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    97fc6ab03e61ce03e4012ed9…
    follows 982e0824d504…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16064: ATP5ME in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.16 (p 0.515, n 18), 95% CI -0.33 to +0.59. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.20 (p 0.424, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.25 (p 0.310, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.05 to +0.34, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.16 (p 0.515, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ATP5ME in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.