Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16062

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.41, p 0.269). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16061, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16062
    31 Oct 2026, 08:48 UTC

    CAMKMT

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCAMKMT in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredae3b213917f84d65

    discovery+0.41 p=0.269 n=9

    replication+0.35 p=0.360 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.41, p 0.269)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    cea0750774a08bc99ea88c85…
    follows 844465c8a37b…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16062: CAMKMT in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.28 (p 0.269, n 18), 95% CI -0.22 to +0.66. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.26 (p 0.294, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.29 (p 0.246, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.19 to +0.45, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.28 (p 0.269, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CAMKMT in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.