Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16046

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.45, p 0.224). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16045, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16046
    31 Oct 2026, 08:26 UTC

    ENDOD1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionENDOD1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered7ad9297bfd704f11

    discovery-0.45 p=0.224 n=9

    replication+0.13 p=0.732 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.45, p 0.224)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    25e3200b0cb70da68bc42e63…
    follows 612ababebf5c…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16046: ENDOD1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.19 (p 0.455, n 18), 95% CI -0.60 to +0.31. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.16 (p 0.532, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.15 (p 0.549, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.32 to -0.06, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.19 (p 0.455, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ENDOD1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.