Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16044

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.30, p 0.441). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16043, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16044
    31 Oct 2026, 08:23 UTC

    ARRDC2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionARRDC2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered8cd2e479250220a1

    discovery-0.30 p=0.441 n=9

    replication-0.71 p=0.032 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.30, p 0.441)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    ffecc5d98b0ade3c953edbda…
    follows b6411c1df5e8…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16044: ARRDC2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.57 (p 0.013, n 18), 95% CI -0.82 to -0.14. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.55 (p 0.019, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.56 (p 0.015, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.74 to -0.51, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.57 (p 0.013, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ARRDC2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.