Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16037

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery +0.68 p 0.045; held-out +0.28 p 0.470). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16036, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16037
    31 Oct 2026, 08:15 UTC

    SH3BGRL2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSH3BGRL2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered65330d981ba82b2c

    discovery+0.68 p=0.045 n=9

    replication+0.28 p=0.470 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery +0.68 p 0.045; held-out +0.28 p 0.470)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    3c9ac5eae72f57ad79b5817b…
    follows 835f76c506ec…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 16037: SH3BGRL2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.38 (p 0.116, n 18), 95% CI -0.10 to +0.72. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.38 (p 0.116, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.32 (p 0.194, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.31 to +0.56, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.38 (p 0.116, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SH3BGRL2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.