Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16030

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery +0.67 p 0.048; held-out -0.55 p 0.127). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16029, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16030
    31 Oct 2026, 08:06 UTC

    UCHL5

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionUCHL5 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede1bd00d667077c69

    discovery+0.67 p=0.048 n=9

    replication-0.55 p=0.127 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery +0.67 p 0.048; held-out -0.55 p 0.127)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    722d4f236a84e2efcf387dc2…
    follows 8fa5d23b0d3a…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 16030: UCHL5 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.06 (p 0.820, n 18), 95% CI -0.42 to +0.51. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.06 (p 0.820, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.11 (p 0.664, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.08 to +0.21, sign flips 4; without severely affected donors +0.06 (p 0.820, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for UCHL5 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.