Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16026

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.06, p 0.877). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16025, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16026
    31 Oct 2026, 08:01 UTC

    NEXMIF

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionNEXMIF in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered44c2c19cbcf564a0

    discovery+0.06 p=0.877 n=9

    replication+0.44 p=0.233 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.06, p 0.877)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    5a0ee093181c6e36efd6ade0…
    follows 6174e36e4212…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16026: NEXMIF in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.25 (p 0.310, n 18), 95% CI -0.24 to +0.64. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.44 (p 0.064, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.42 (p 0.080, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.14 to +0.42, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.25 (p 0.310, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NEXMIF in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.