Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16020

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.07, p 0.849). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16019, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16020
    31 Oct 2026, 07:53 UTC

    TMEM123

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTMEM123 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered605878a0e832001a

    discovery-0.07 p=0.849 n=9

    replication+0.45 p=0.222 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.07, p 0.849)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    f507f956bd2210e28dcbc0a4…
    follows 6695fbb1fa0f…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16020: TMEM123 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.13 (p 0.597, n 18), 95% CI -0.36 to +0.57. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.25 (p 0.323, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.24 (p 0.346, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.02 to +0.27, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.13 (p 0.597, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TMEM123 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.