Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16018

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.02, p 0.963). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16017, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16018
    31 Oct 2026, 07:50 UTC

    STXBP5

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSTXBP5 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede0800ab7bf89ae1a

    discovery+0.02 p=0.963 n=9

    replication-0.10 p=0.803 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.02, p 0.963)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    9a6b2570a443125a03bcde89…
    follows 6268016e6fd7…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16018: STXBP5 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.01 (p 0.962, n 18), 95% CI -0.48 to +0.46. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.07 (p 0.787, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.03 (p 0.901, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.11 to +0.13, sign flips 7; without severely affected donors -0.01 (p 0.962, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for STXBP5 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.