Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16008

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.23, p 0.553). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16007, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16008
    31 Oct 2026, 07:36 UTC

    KMT2E

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionKMT2E in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredc0b11e30f87fcd33

    discovery+0.23 p=0.553 n=9

    replication-0.52 p=0.154 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.23, p 0.553)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    46e03e8e72758028ca1c7b8d…
    follows 43581c61ad21…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16008: KMT2E in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.18 (p 0.487, n 18), 95% CI -0.59 to +0.32. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.18 (p 0.487, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.25 (p 0.315, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.33 to -0.08, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.18 (p 0.487, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in OPCs: -0.59 (p 0.0099, n 18) vs -0.18 in dopamine neurons. proposing OPCs.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for KMT2E in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up KMT2E · OPCs · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) +0.50 p 0.076 (needs p < 1.4e-4)