Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15993

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.33, p 0.386). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15992, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15993
    31 Oct 2026, 07:17 UTC

    RUNDC3A

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionRUNDC3A in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered1d99d8e573966777

    discovery+0.33 p=0.386 n=9

    replication-0.19 p=0.631 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.33, p 0.386)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    9380bc88d8cec076f8d6c04d…
    follows 1695b82ae6e7…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 15993: RUNDC3A in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.12 (p 0.633, n 18), 95% CI -0.37 to +0.56. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.18 (p 0.482, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.13 (p 0.597, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.01 to +0.20, sign flips 1; without severely affected donors +0.12 (p 0.633, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RUNDC3A in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.