Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15985

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.16, p 0.685). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15984, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15985
    31 Oct 2026, 07:09 UTC

    PPP1R2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPPP1R2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede2bacc531695476e

    discovery+0.16 p=0.685 n=9

    replication-0.32 p=0.407 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.16, p 0.685)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    1bee9ac91d9a03083d29c94d…
    follows 5621691494eb…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15985: PPP1R2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.10 (p 0.683, n 18), 95% CI -0.54 to +0.38. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.11 (p 0.652, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.16 (p 0.532, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.25 to -0.02, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.10 (p 0.683, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PPP1R2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.