Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15982

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.24, p 0.537). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15981, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15982
    31 Oct 2026, 07:06 UTC

    TRIM59

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionTRIM59 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered3d23673b49d0d24f

    discovery+0.24 p=0.537 n=9

    replication+0.14 p=0.714 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.24, p 0.537)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    8da2d9e2fcc1108b3fe829ab…
    follows db57ff13e428…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15982: TRIM59 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.19 (p 0.460, n 18), 95% CI -0.31 to +0.60. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.19 (p 0.460, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.14 (p 0.585, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.09 to +0.36, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.19 (p 0.460, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TRIM59 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.