Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15980

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.16, p 0.682). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15979, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15980
    31 Oct 2026, 07:03 UTC

    CCNC

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCCNC in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredb54af0d6821c4269

    discovery+0.16 p=0.682 n=9

    replication+0.66 p=0.051 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.16, p 0.682)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    7a846e578896a1aee1f62ca0…
    follows 4b126fefb660…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15980: CCNC in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.49 (p 0.038, n 18), 95% CI +0.03 to +0.78. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.49 (p 0.038, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.51 (p 0.031, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.42 to +0.60, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.49 (p 0.038, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CCNC in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.