Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15970

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.15, p 0.697). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15969, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15970
    31 Oct 2026, 06:49 UTC

    RPL12

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionRPL12 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered906a2e0dfb3ad7e5

    discovery-0.15 p=0.697 n=9

    replication+0.06 p=0.877 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.15, p 0.697)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    43400292458f7c4c0a3ae9e8…
    follows 7a58c3b61a6e…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15970: RPL12 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.05 (p 0.847, n 18), 95% CI -0.50 to +0.43. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.02 (p 0.928, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.11 (p 0.677, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.17 to +0.07, sign flips 4; without severely affected donors -0.05 (p 0.847, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RPL12 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.