Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15964

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.17, p 0.656). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15963, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15964
    31 Oct 2026, 06:41 UTC

    BIRC6

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionBIRC6 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered4e2ae60af6bedb7f

    discovery+0.17 p=0.656 n=9

    replication-0.20 p=0.613 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.17, p 0.656)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    5a7987d7fa241e88afdf8d5e…
    follows 7e733319581d…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15964: BIRC6 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.04 (p 0.874, n 18), 95% CI -0.50 to +0.43. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.05 (p 0.854, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.13 (p 0.603, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.17 to +0.07, sign flips 5; without severely affected donors -0.04 (p 0.874, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for BIRC6 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.