Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15950

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.17, p 0.668). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15949, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15950
    31 Oct 2026, 06:22 UTC

    EXOC8

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionEXOC8 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredd0204de5848cb96f

    discovery-0.17 p=0.668 n=9

    replication-0.05 p=0.893 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.17, p 0.668)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    e26050945f72eab6ce3bc34e…
    follows 8224faed461d…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15950: EXOC8 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.13 (p 0.597, n 18), 95% CI -0.57 to +0.36. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.15 (p 0.544, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.15 (p 0.544, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.29 to -0.02, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.13 (p 0.597, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in OPCs: -0.62 (p 0.0057, n 18) vs -0.13 in dopamine neurons. proposing OPCs.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for EXOC8 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up EXOC8 · OPCs · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) +0.55 p 0.051 (needs p < 1.4e-4)