Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15948

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.16, p 0.680). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15947, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15948
    31 Oct 2026, 06:19 UTC

    TPRG1L

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTPRG1L in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered3c2f71371f6ff68a

    discovery+0.16 p=0.680 n=9

    replication+0.23 p=0.553 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.16, p 0.680)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    e2b12a7652c72cbbe0019999…
    follows 86199def22b3…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15948: TPRG1L in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.22 (p 0.389, n 18), 95% CI -0.28 to +0.62. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.22 (p 0.389, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.27 (p 0.273, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.14 to +0.39, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.22 (p 0.389, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TPRG1L in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.