Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15944

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.01, p 0.982). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15943, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15944
    31 Oct 2026, 06:14 UTC

    EPHA7

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionEPHA7 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered199173c9d051f0b9

    discovery-0.01 p=0.982 n=9

    replication+0.45 p=0.222 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.01, p 0.982)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    4fd924fd0b884aa0e54e74b1…
    follows 7d4a11684845…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15944: EPHA7 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.35 (p 0.159, n 18), 95% CI -0.14 to +0.70. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.39 (p 0.105, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.41 (p 0.091, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.27 to +0.52, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.35 (p 0.159, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for EPHA7 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.