Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15934

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.02, p 0.964). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15933, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15934
    31 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC

    TMEM272

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTMEM272 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered3b48319a6f05ad5f

    discovery-0.02 p=0.964 n=9

    replication-0.31 p=0.414 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.02, p 0.964)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    a3810a249a5e6a7074f10325…
    follows 19ef741c9aea…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15934: TMEM272 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.13 (p 0.597, n 18), 95% CI -0.57 to +0.36. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.17 (p 0.504, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.27 (p 0.277, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.27 to -0.03, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.13 (p 0.597, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TMEM272 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.