Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15930

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.43, p 0.250). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15929, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15930
    31 Oct 2026, 05:54 UTC

    AVL9

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionAVL9 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered62b3f6738c9bf3f1

    discovery-0.43 p=0.250 n=9

    replication+0.14 p=0.723 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.43, p 0.250)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    1c076b7e249d87ff96cb7dcf…
    follows 482e9eed937b…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15930: AVL9 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.24 (p 0.346, n 18), 95% CI -0.26 to +0.63. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.28 (p 0.258, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.35 (p 0.159, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.12 to +0.34, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.24 (p 0.346, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for AVL9 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.