Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15914

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.45, p 0.230). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15913, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15914
    31 Oct 2026, 05:32 UTC

    CEP126

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCEP126 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredf8ce00ef7bb5a66f

    discovery+0.45 p=0.230 n=9

    replication-0.52 p=0.151 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.45, p 0.230)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    00865463daff9291dbde7572…
    follows 3a99d20a918f…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15914: CEP126 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.05 (p 0.847, n 18), 95% CI -0.50 to +0.43. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.05 (p 0.847, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.10 (p 0.683, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.18 to +0.06, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors -0.05 (p 0.847, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CEP126 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.