Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15898

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.36, p 0.344). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15897, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15898
    31 Oct 2026, 05:10 UTC

    TRAPPC6B

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTRAPPC6B in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered0efebb4d026afe65

    discovery-0.36 p=0.344 n=9

    replication+0.26 p=0.502 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.36, p 0.344)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    380004caf638d61a96f4e4b7…
    follows c15653a37a45…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15898: TRAPPC6B in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.12 (p 0.640, n 18), 95% CI -0.55 to +0.37. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.09 (p 0.709, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.09 (p 0.709, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.25 to -0.01, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.12 (p 0.640, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TRAPPC6B in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.