Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15895

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.37, p 0.329). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15894, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15895
    31 Oct 2026, 05:08 UTC

    HS6ST3

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionHS6ST3 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered849cdc62686fc887

    discovery+0.37 p=0.329 n=9

    replication-0.26 p=0.498 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.37, p 0.329)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    76a1ca76c034c7adf4092478…
    follows 9efd4a496bfa…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15895: HS6ST3 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.06 (p 0.814, n 18), 95% CI -0.51 to +0.42. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.06 (p 0.807, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.04 (p 0.874, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.15 to +0.07, sign flips 4; without severely affected donors -0.06 (p 0.814, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for HS6ST3 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.