Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15893

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.08, p 0.842). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15892, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15893
    31 Oct 2026, 05:05 UTC

    SLIRP

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSLIRP in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredadd111a75b1c35d7

    discovery-0.08 p=0.842 n=9

    replication+0.37 p=0.329 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.08, p 0.842)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    2ed069f1d7727605cb2d5f1f…
    follows 4043216a6816…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15893: SLIRP in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.24 (p 0.346, n 18), 95% CI -0.26 to +0.63. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.29 (p 0.239, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.37 (p 0.132, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.14 to +0.34, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.24 (p 0.346, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SLIRP in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.