Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15884

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.37, p 0.323). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15883, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15884
    31 Oct 2026, 04:51 UTC

    COPS4

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCOPS4 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered7a1dbbb1f56c78a5

    discovery+0.37 p=0.323 n=9

    replication-0.13 p=0.732 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.37, p 0.323)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    8289696791a399a07d52befa…
    follows 339c0c6b3585…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15884: COPS4 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.13 (p 0.609, n 18), 95% CI -0.36 to +0.56. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.29 (p 0.235, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.29 (p 0.235, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.01 to +0.23, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.13 (p 0.609, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for COPS4 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.