Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15882

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.36, p 0.348). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15881, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15882
    31 Oct 2026, 04:48 UTC

    TSPAN13

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTSPAN13 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered4a7de98ff622e6fa

    discovery+0.36 p=0.348 n=9

    replication+0.00 p=1.000 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.36, p 0.348)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    87ca889f88ef034f523a3182…
    follows 0084eb54b144…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15882: TSPAN13 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.18 (p 0.482, n 18), 95% CI -0.32 to +0.59. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.11 (p 0.658, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.11 (p 0.671, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.08 to +0.32, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.18 (p 0.482, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TSPAN13 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.